Predictions from Markov Chains were highly accurate
Back in 2011 I fielded a survey to fortune 500 companies. Among other questions I asked what current OS they were using and what they thought they would be using next year. From those simple (to answer) two questions, I was able to build Markov Chains showing the estimated switching patterns. Many of my client’s did not believe what the results showed however history has proven them to be far more accurate than I would have imagined!
Yes, Linux never really ballooned up but the Windows predictions were highly accurate.
Here’s a great book to get ideas on conveying data visually