Predicting OS market share with Markov chains- A review of past predictions

Predictions from Markov Chains were highly accurate

Back in 2011 I fielded a survey to fortune 500 companies.  Among other questions I asked what current OS they were using and what they thought they would be using next year.   From those simple (to answer) two questions, I was able to build Markov Chains showing the estimated switching patterns.  Many of my client’s did not believe what the results showed however history has proven them to be far more accurate than I would have imagined!

Yes, Linux never really ballooned up but the Windows predictions were highly accurate.

Markov Chains
Here’s a great book to get ideas on conveying data visually

Similarities in payment distributions by Industry

Payment Distributions

In 2010 a national study across various industries examined payment distributions by industry.  The below additive tree shows the correlations  by Industry.  When reading an additive tree, follow the path from between the lines.  The shorter the distance, the higher correlated they are.  Color-coding was done to aide interpretation of the tree and is subjective.  I used SYSTAT to create tree.

In reviewing the tree below you can see that, overall, there are two main branches that split at the root.  After that, there are some pretty clear patterns.

 

Similarities in payment distributions by Industry by industries

Here’s a great book to get ideas on conveying data visually

Here’s a great book to get ideas on conveying data visually

And here is a book utilizing SYSTAT by one of the programmers. I learned the vast majority of my statistics from this great book!